BTC/USD ICT – 16th August 2025

Market Snapshot

Bitcoin is trading around $117,900 after experiencing a strong rejection from the $123,600 level earlier this week. Price action has since consolidated within the $116,500 – $119,000 range, with volatility concentrated during the London and New York sessions. Moving averages (9/21 EMA) show bearish pressure, while liquidity pools from previous highs remain untapped.

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Smart Money Structure

Highs: $123,600 (14th Aug) swept liquidity → reversal point.
Lows: $116,500 remains a key draw for liquidity collection.
Market Structure: Transitioned from bullish (11–14 Aug rally) to bearish (NY PM sell-off 15th Aug).
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): A visible 30M FVG between $119,800 – $120,200 could act as a retracement magnet if price retraces higher.

Session Outlook

Asian Session: Ranged between $117,300 – $118,000, consolidating after Friday’s sell-off.
London Session: Attempted retracement into $118,500, but sellers defended.
New York AM: Potential expansion lower towards $117,000 – $116,500 if bearish continuation resumes.

Market Drivers & News Outlook

Macro Sentiment: Risk appetite remains weak as traditional equities consolidate after a volatile CPI week.
Crypto Flows: ETF inflows slowed compared to early August, keeping BTC in range-bound behavior.
Dollar Index (DXY): Strengthening near-term, adding pressure on BTC/USD.

Trade Plans

Bearish Continuation Setup:
- Wait for retracement into $118,500 – $119,000 FVG zone.
- Short entries targeting $117,000 – $116,500 liquidity pools.
Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability):
- If price reclaims $119,500 on strong momentum, intraday longs toward $120,200 FVG.
- Key invalidation below $116,500.

Final Bias – ICT Narrative

Bias remains bearish with expectation of liquidity draw towards $116,500. Any retracement into premium zones ($118,500–$119,500) provides shorting opportunities in alignment with Smart Money. A reclaim above $119,800 would be the first sign of bullish recovery.