XAU/USD ICT – 28 July, 2025

1. Market Snapshot (30-Min Timeframe)

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to exhibit a bearish market structure, respecting the descending trendline drawn from 24th July. Price has made consistent lower highs and lower lows through the past week, confirming Smart Money Distribution.

Friday’s price action tapped into the PDL (Previous Day Low) and rebounded during the early Asian session (Monday) with a small bullish corrective leg.

Currently, price is reacting off the 38.2% – 79% Fibonacci retracement zone drawn from Friday’s high to Monday’s low, suggesting a premium short entry zone for Smart Money.

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2. Smart Money Structure

PDH (Previous Day High) at $3,373.94 remains unviolated
PDL at $3,325.12 was swept early today forming liquidity grab
Price has bounced off the PDL + OTE retracement zone, suggesting Smart Money may use this pullback for a redistribution short
Break of structure (BOS) confirmation will come below $3,325 for continuation

3. Session Outlook

London Session could provide a retracement into the 0.62–0.79 Fib zone ($3,349–$3,363) before potential bearish continuation
New York Open might offer high volatility and sweep of highs before drop
Asia Session created the low of the day – keeping in line with ICT’s optimal timing model for a high to form during NY

4. Market Drivers & News Outlook

Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights:
- No major U.S. news releases today, but traders will anticipate FOMC speaker commentary this week
- Treasury Yields slightly firmer, adding pressure on non-yielding assets like gold
- Rising real interest rate expectations could support stronger USD outlook – indirectly bearish for gold

5. Trade Plan

Sell Setup: Price at premium level (0.705–0.79 zone) and rejecting trendline
Entry Area: $3,355–$3,363
Stop Loss: Above PDH at $3,374
Target Zones:
- First target: $3,325 (PDL retest)
- Final target: $3,301 (Measured move extension, -0.5 Fib level)

This trade follows a classic ICT Optimal Trade Entry model: liquidity grab + premium retracement + bearish market structure.

6. Final Bias – ICT Narrative

📉 Bias: Bearish

We remain bearish on gold as long as price remains below $3,363–$3,374 zone. The market structure, session timing model, and Fibonacci-based premium levels align with Smart Money Distribution principles. Any intraday pullback into the OTE zone can be seen as a shorting opportunity.