XAU/USD ICT – 14 August 2025

Market Snapshot

Gold is currently trading at $3,356, down slightly from the day’s high after rejecting the $3,370–$3,372 PDH liquidity zone during the Asian session. The chart shows a clear rejection wick into premium levels, followed by a retracement into the Fibonacci 50–79% zone, with potential continuation to the downside targeting the $3,342 PDL and deeper liquidity at $3,328.

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Smart Money Structure

Daily Bias: Bearish, as price is failing to hold above PDH and is showing displacement lower.
Internal Structure: M30 chart shows a clean swing high at $3,370.76 (PDH) with lower highs forming into NY session.
Liquidity Pools:
- Buyside: Above $3,370.76 (PDH)
- Sellside: Below $3,342.70 (PDL) and deeper liquidity near $3,328.85 (-0.5 FIB extension).
Fair Value Gaps: Recent displacement created an unfilled FVG between $3,362.45 – $3,364.82 (79–70% retracement zone).

Session Outlook

Asia: Strong push above London high into PDH, immediate rejection.
London: Retracement into moving average zone, failing to reclaim premium prices.
New York Projection: Expectation for retrace into $3,362–$3,364 FVG area before continuation to sellside liquidity at $3,342 and $3,328.

Market Drivers & News Outlook

Macro: Market positioning ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data, which will heavily influence USD and gold volatility.
USD Index (DXY): Slightly firmer intraday, pressuring gold lower.
Bond Yields: Stable, giving room for gold to follow technical levels rather than macro shocks today.

Trade Plans

Bearish Scenario (Primary):
- Wait for retrace into $3,362–$3,364 zone (FVG / 70–79% retracement).
- Look for rejection with M5–M15 confirmation.
- Targets: $3,342 (PDL) → $3,328 (-0.5 extension).
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability):
- If price reclaims $3,364 with displacement and closes above, target $3,370 PDH and liquidity sweep.

Final Bias – ICT Narrative

Gold’s price action on 14 August shows a textbook PDH liquidity grab during Asia, with rejection confirming a bearish intraday bias. Smart Money Concepts point toward a retrace into the FVG premium zone before targeting sellside liquidity beneath PDL. Until US CPI tomorrow, market structure favors short setups over longs.