XAU/USD ICT – 15 August 2025

Market Snapshot

Gold is trading around $3,344, recovering from an overnight low near $3,329 (previous sellside liquidity sweep). The market is retracing into a premium zone ahead of the $3,365–$3,361 FVG cluster, with potential for continuation lower if New York session fails to reclaim this area. The higher timeframe structure remains bearish after the Change of Character (CHOCH) on August 14.

Ads:

🎓 Free Mini Course to Start Trading – Beginner’s Guide

Smart Money Structure

Daily Bias: Bearish — price remains below PDH ($3,374.73) and is respecting lower highs.
Market Structure Shift: CHOCH confirmed on Aug 14 with strong downside displacement.
Liquidity Pools:
- Buyside: Above $3,352–$3,365 retracement zone.
- Sellside: Below $3,329.89 (recent low) and deeper liquidity toward $3,320.05.
Fair Value Gaps:
- M30: $3,352.39 – $3,365.35
- Aligns with 50–79% Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing high.

Session Outlook

Asia: Mild recovery from PDL sweep; consolidation before breakout.
London: Continuation of the retracement toward premium levels.
New York Projection: Retrace into $3,352–$3,365 zone → potential rejection → sellside continuation to retest $3,329.

Market Drivers & News Outlook

Macro: Traders remain cautious ahead of US CPI release later today, which will directly affect USD and gold volatility.
USD Index (DXY): Holding gains, limiting gold’s bullish retracement.
Risk Sentiment: Equity futures flat, suggesting no immediate safe-haven rush.

Trade Plans

Bearish Scenario (Primary):
- Wait for price to trade into $3,352–$3,365 zone (FVG / 50–79% retracement).
- Look for rejection with M5–M15 confirmation (engulfing or liquidity sweep).
- Targets: $3,329 (PDL) → $3,320 extension.
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability):
- If price closes above $3,365, possible run to $3,374 PDH before any selloff.

Final Bias – ICT Narrative

The August 15 setup is a classic PDL sweep → retrace to premium → continuation pattern. With a clear CHOCH from August 14 and no daily market structure break in favor of the bulls, Smart Money Concepts suggest fading rallies into premium zones until proven otherwise.