XAU/USD ICT – 18th August 2025

Market Snapshot

Gold is currently trading around $3,349, after a sharp recovery from Friday’s sell-off. Price swept below the previous day’s low (PDL) near $3,336 before reversing aggressively into the London session. At the time of writing, price is consolidating between $3,358 (Asian high resistance) and $3,340 (FVG / 50% retracement zone).

Key Levels on Chart:

• PDH (Previous Day High): $3,348
• PDL (Previous Day Low): $3,336
• Premium Zone: Above $3,350 (0.705 & 0.79 fib levels)
• Discount Zone: $3,340 → $3,333 (ICT target range)

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Smart Money Structure

• Liquidity Sweeps:
  • Price ran the PDL at $3,336, clearing sell-side liquidity.
  • Reversal upwards took liquidity above the Asian range high ($3,355–$3,358).
• Market Structure:
  • Break of structure (BOS) above PDH confirms short-term bullishness, but price is now at a premium zone.
  • Sell-side imbalance (FVG) exists between $3,345 → $3,340, likely to be rebalanced.

Session Outlook

• Asian Session: Created a strong high near $3,358 (liquidity pool).
• London Session: Drove price above PDH and into premium, trapping breakout buyers.
• New York Session (expected): Probability of mean reversion into discount zones, targeting $3,340 → $3,333.

Market Drivers & News Outlook

• Macro Focus:
  • Market participants await US Retail Sales (tomorrow) and FOMC minutes (later this week) for dollar guidance.
  • Strong dollar demand from last week’s risk-off sentiment is still in play.
• Geopolitics: No fresh escalation reported, safe-haven demand is muted.
• Net Effect: Short-term corrective pullback expected before any continuation higher.

Trade Plans

1. Sell Scenario (High Probability):
   • Entry: Around $3,350–$3,352 (0.705–0.79 fib zone / premium pricing)
   • TP1: $3,344 (FVG fill)
   • TP2: $3,338–$3,333 (discount range)
   • SL: Above $3,358 (Asian High / liquidity pool)
2. Buy Scenario (Lower Probability):
   • If price holds $3,340–$3,333 as support, a rebound to $3,355–$3,360 may occur.
   • Would require strong NY open momentum.

Final Bias – ICT Narrative

Gold has reached into premium territory after a liquidity sweep. With Asian high liquidity taken, the higher-probability setup is a sell model, targeting discount zones at $3,340 → $3,333. Unless news shifts sentiment, the bias remains short for the New York session.