XAU/USD ICT – August 4, 2025

1. Market Snapshot

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $3,352 during the early hours of Monday. Price action reflects a sharp bullish move on Friday, following a mid-week accumulation phase and manipulation below the previous day’s low (PDL). Currently, the price is consolidating in the upper range after breaking out of a critical resistance zone around $3,333, now acting as support.

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2. Smart Money Structure

• Accumulation Phase: Midweek price dipped below PDL ($3,282) into a well-marked support zone ($3,267), triggering liquidity grabs and setting the base for a reversal.
• Manipulation & Expansion: Strong bullish expansion occurred during Friday’s London session, breaking market structure and clearing relative equal highs.
• Repricing Zone: New support has formed around $3,333, previously a key resistance.
• Current Price Context: The market is now hovering just below PDH ($3,363) with minor distribution ongoing in low-volatility Asian sessions.

3. Session Outlook

• Asia (Monday): Showing signs of retracement and consolidation after Friday’s impulsive move. Low liquidity likely until London open.
• London: Watching for potential displacement either above PDH ($3,363) or retrace back into the $3,333 – $3,341 support zone.
• New York: High-impact movement expected if liquidity pools are taken in London. New York reversal or continuation move probable.

4. Market Drivers & News Outlook

• This Week’s Focus: NFP data release later this week. Market is positioning for it.
• No major events today, but potential retracement expected as traders await more directional cues.
• Sentiment: Still bullish from last week’s dovish FOMC tone and soft inflation data, pushing traders toward safe-haven assets like gold.

5. Trade Plans

Scenario A: Retracement Entry

• Wait for price to return to the $3,341 or $3,333 support zone.
• Look for bullish confirmation (MSB, FVG reaction) during London session.
• Target: $3,363 (PDH), then extension to new highs around $3,375 – $3,380.

Scenario B: Breakout Scalps

• If London pushes above PDH ($3,363) and shows displacement:
  • Look for short-term pullbacks for continuation longs.
  • Ensure liquidity grab occurs before engaging.

Scenario C: Reversal Short

• Only if price sweeps PDH with no follow-through and shows bearish BOS on M5–M15.
• Target retrace to $3,341 first, deeper move to $3,333 possible.

6. Final Bias – ICT Narrative

“PDL raid into support → Expansion → Retrace → Continuation.”

• Current bias: Bullish continuation after retrace.
• Key levels to watch:
  • Support: $3,333 and $3,341
  • Resistance/Target: $3,363, $3,375

Gold’s smart money narrative shows clear signs of institutional accumulation and reaccumulation. Unless PDH acts as a strong supply zone, we anticipate price to seek higher liquidity above recent highs.