XAU/USD ICT – September 22, 2025

Market Snapshot

Gold is trading around $3,687 after a strong bullish recovery from last week’s lows near $3,635. Price has reclaimed key levels and is consolidating inside the Asian session high around $3,695. Momentum favors the upside, but liquidity above remains uncollected, making this week’s sessions critical.

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Smart Money Structure

Clear bullish market structure shift after price broke above Friday’s London/New York highs.
Price is currently trading above the 9/21 EMA cross, showing strong short-term momentum.
Liquidity rests above $3,700–$3,710 (equal highs).
Sell-side liquidity sits below $3,665 (London low from September 19).

Session Outlook

Asian session: Built a range with highs already tested near $3,695.
London session: Likely to raid either Asian highs ($3,695) or sweep downside liquidity before continuation.
New York session: Could provide the expansion move toward $3,705–$3,710 or reject sharply if dollar strengthens.

Market Drivers & News Outlook

Dollar Index (DXY) easing slightly, giving gold a lift.
U.S. Treasury yields pulling back, supportive for gold upside.
Fed commentary later in the week may increase volatility.
No major data releases today, so liquidity hunts could dominate intraday sessions.

Trade Plans

🟢 Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation)
- 🔍 Watch for liquidity grab below $3,680–$3,675 during London.
- 📈 Enter long after displacement + FVG confirmation.
- 🎯 Targets: $3,700 → $3,710 liquidity pool.
- 🚨 Risk invalidation if price closes below $3,665.
🔻 Scenario 2 (Short-term Pullback)
- ⚡ If London runs Asian highs ($3,695–$3,700) and rejects.
- 🔽 Look for bearish displacement back toward $3,670 → $3,660.
- 🎯 First target at $3,665 liquidity sweep.

Final Bias – ICT Narrative

Gold is showing bullish short-term bias, with the market likely to engineer liquidity sweeps during London before expanding in New York.
Primary expectation: a retracement into discount ($3,675–$3,680) before a continuation higher toward $3,705–$3,710.
Alternative: a rejection at $3,700 leading to a corrective pullback.