XAU/USD ICT – September 4, 2025

Market Snapshot

Gold (XAU/USD) opened today around $3,529 after a strong bullish run earlier in the week. Price tapped into the New York PM high near $3,580 before reversing aggressively in the Asian session, breaking short-term structure and driving lower. Current price is trading near $3,529, showing intraday weakness.

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Smart Money Structure

Price rallied strongly from the New York AM session (Sep 3), creating a new swing high at $3,580.
Current market shows bearish displacement with a sharp move down in the Asian session.
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed between $3,540 – $3,555, which may act as a short-term retracement zone.
Structure shifted from bullish → bearish on the intraday level.

Session Outlook

Asian Session: Aggressive sell-off, clearing liquidity under previous intraday lows.
London Session: Expected to provide retracement into FVG ($3,540–$3,555) before continuation.
New York Session: Potential expansion move lower toward $3,500 psychological level.

Market Drivers & News Outlook

Dollar Index (DXY) showing strength this morning, pressuring Gold lower.
Traders eye U.S. data releases later today, which may increase volatility during the New York session.
Risk sentiment currently favors USD demand.

Trade Plans

📉 Sell Scenario:

Look for retracement into $3,540 – $3,555 FVG zone.
Confirmation entry at bearish rejection pattern.
Target 1: $3,515 intraday low 🥇
Target 2: $3,500 psychological round number 💰

🚀 Buy Scenario (Low Probability):

If price holds above $3,515 low and forms bullish rejection, look for a retracement push back toward $3,555.

Final Bias – ICT Narrative

Gold remains in a bearish intraday bias after rejecting the $3,580 New York PM high. Expecting retracement into $3,540–$3,555 FVG during London, with downside continuation into $3,515 → $3,500 as main liquidity draw.

Bias: 📉 Bearish towards $3,500.